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Separate resource forecasts from availability
Wind and solar output depends on weather, plant availability, technical limits and dispatch constraints. Forecasting available generation is not the same as predicting actual dispatched output. Curtailment needs its own attribution.
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Working relationship
Forecast error = forecast output − actual output
What to keep separate
Do not train away curtailed output as though it were the unconstrained resource potential.
Your task
Label errors due to weather, equipment and curtailment; evaluate each group separately.
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Key terms in plain English
- MW
- Megawatt: a measure of power, or how quickly energy is transferred. A plant's maximum MW is not its actual output in every interval.
- Dispatch
- The operational process of determining output and consumption targets, subject to offers, demand and system constraints. A target is not a meter reading.
- Curtailment
- A reduction in generation below what could otherwise have been produced. Network limits, system security and commercial decisions can have different causes.