A factory shifts load, then catches up

Teaching scenarioADDED OCT 2026

A factory shifts load, then catches up

A factory can reduce load during a high-price hour, but production must be recovered later. Its commercial team wants to count both an energy saving and a programme payment.

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Your task

Calculate net event value, challenge baseline sensitivity and identify what stops a physical reduction automatically becoming an eligible payment.

PrepareEvent-and-rebound ledger + baseline sensitivity + eligibility checklist

Your role

Demand-flexibility analyst checking a customer proposal

Practice data & worked solution

PRACTICE DATASET

Measure the whole response window

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Original synthetic two-hour exercise. Both rows last one hour. Customer energy purchases use the shown spot prices. A separate hypothetical contract pays A$200 per verified event MWh reduced in hour one only; assume it permits payment alongside these energy savings. Lost production/recovery cost is A$400. No baseline approval, wholesale eligibility, network saving or real WDRM settlement is implied.

Teaching inputs · synthetic data
Hour	Baseline MW	Actual MW	Spot AUD per MWh
1	10	6	1000
2	10	12	100

Your analysis

Calculate event reduction, rebound energy and baseline versus actual energy purchase costs.
Add the assumed incentive and production cost. Explain why gross curtailed MWh alone is not the net energy saving.
Change the first-hour baseline from 10 MW to 8 MW. Recalculate net value and explain the evidence required to select a valid baseline.

Worked solution

Event and rebound

The event reduction is 4 MWh. The second hour adds 2 MWh above baseline, so net energy reduction is 2 MWh. Baseline energy cost is A$11,000; actual cost is A$7,200. Energy-cost saving is A$3,800, including the A$200 rebound cost.

Contract contribution

The assumed payment is 4 × 200 = A$800. Net contribution is 3,800 + 800 − 400 = A$4,200. This depends on the invented contract explicitly allowing both benefits. A real offer requires its actual settlement and benefit-allocation terms; copying this arithmetic into WDRM could double-count value.

Baseline sensitivity

With an 8 MW first-hour baseline, event reduction is 2 MWh and baseline energy cost is A$9,000. Energy-cost saving becomes A$1,800, incentive A$400 and net contribution A$1,800. Total baseline and actual energy are both 18 MWh. Validate the baseline method, operating schedule, telemetry and eligibility rather than choosing the most profitable counterfactual.

Review your response

Window: include rebound rather than reporting only the event hour.
Counterfactual: baseline choice and uncertainty are visible.
Settlement: invented payments are not presented as official WDRM entitlements.
Decision: contract compatibility, operational limits and production recovery are explicit.

This checklist supports self-review. No tutor marking or independent credential is included.

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