Lessons

TOPIC 30 · APPLIED CAPSTONE

Capstone: integrated market recommendation

Brief a decision-maker with evidence, uncertainty and action.

APPLIED CAPSTONE · TOPIC 30

Recommend a supply position

A fictional retailer serves a constant 40 MW load in each of two consecutive two-hour blocks. Spot prices are A$70/MWh and A$250/MWh. A fixed-for-floating swap covers 30 MW in both blocks at A$100/MWh. Compare the original load with reducing only the second block to 35 MW. The financial contract is unchanged and does not reserve physical supply capacity.

1. Establish the evidence pack

  • Two blocks × 2 hours; initial load 40 MW in both.
  • Spot: A$70/MWh, then A$250/MWh; fixed swap: 30 MW at A$100/MWh.
  • Alternative: 35 MW load in the second block only.
  • No losses, fees, network charges, taxes, premiums or customer-service costs. All inputs are synthetic.

2. Produce the deliverables

  1. A two-row workbook for each option: hours, MW, MWh, spot cost, covered MWh, swap receipt and net cost.
  2. A sensitivity with the second spot price at A$150/MWh, keeping the original and alternative load cases separate.
  3. A 300-word decision memo, including the unpriced service cost and the conditions needed before demand could be reduced.
  4. An evidence log with two dated primary sources explaining settlement and physical capacity boundaries; distinguish those sources from the synthetic inputs.

3. Review the work, not just the answer

For each dimension, record 0 — Not yet, 1 — With guidance, or 2 — Independent. Explain your rating. Correct material physical or numerical errors before sharing; do not average them away.

Accuracy

Reconcile MW × hours, the buyer's swap sign and both load cases; do not net a financial position against a physical limit.

Traceability

Retain input rows, formulas and source versions so another reader can reproduce the result.

Judgement

Test the price sensitivity and identify the maximum unpriced service cost that could eliminate the modelled saving.

Communication

Recommend proceed, modify or defer with a named decision role, missing evidence and a review trigger.

Use the Self-review tab to rate your evidence against all four dimensions. A quiz does not complete this capstone. No automatic marking, tutor review or credential is provided; arrange qualified feedback separately.

Check the numerical anchors after doing your own working

Original: 160 MWh and A$ 18,400 net cost. Reduce the second block to 35 MW: 150 MWh and A$ 15,900. Energy-cost reduction: A$ 2,500 before lost-service cost.

At a second-block price of A$150/MWh, original net cost is A$ 16,400; reduced-load cost is A$ 14,900. The swap is unchanged between load cases. A numerical match alone does not validate the recommendation.

Supporting lesson and optional data practice

Background study is separate from the decision pack. Do not combine unrelated teaching datasets as if they describe one real site.

The lesson

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    4. Draft the decision pack

    Keep the decision memo within 800 words, or the shorter limit in your brief. State the recommendation, three decision-driving numbers with sources or assumptions, one rejected alternative, and the largest risk with its owner and review trigger. Separate facts, modelled results and missing evidence. Keep your calculation workbook separately and record its filename, version and key results here. Do not enter confidential information.

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